# 250-million Jacob pedigree trial results

The middle-assumption trial, seed 25001, completed through AD 2026 on October 30, 2026 at 03:24 PM Chicago time. It passed the agreed completion, Exodus and lineage-survival conditions.

## Main results

| Measure | Observed result |
|---|---:|
| Modeled adults at AD 2026 | 249,870,560 |
| Adults carrying modeled Jacob descent | 249,870,560 |
| Living people including juvenile survivors | 358,372,976 |
| Living modeled descendants including juvenile survivors | 358,372,976 |
| First saved snapshot with complete adult coverage | AD 1800 |
| Exodus community men aged 20 and older | 575,402 |
| People moved at the Exodus including juvenile survivors | 2,403,128 |
| Represented births across the run | 19,903,601,560 |
| Ordinary migration events | 1,202,208,488 |
| Elapsed engine time | 100.26 minutes |
| CPU time | 98.48 minutes |
| Peak process memory | 11.85 GB |

These counts describe one conditional simulation under the recorded settings. At the preceding AD 1775 snapshot, one adult remained without modeled Jacob descent. Snapshots capture the trajectory at selected dates, so AD 1800 is the first saved complete-adult-coverage observation. The final review separately confirms coverage of represented juvenile survivors.

## Demographic fit

The final adult total was 0.0518% below the nominal 250-million target. Regional differences were larger.

| Region | Modeled adults | Target | Difference |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Eurasia | 181,272,162 | 180,100,980 | +0.65% |
| Africa | 25,023,661 | 24,687,522 | +1.36% |
| North America | 15,458,383 | 16,525,714 | -6.46% |
| South America | 18,257,870 | 19,070,577 | -4.26% |
| Indonesia | 7,929,743 | 8,026,663 | -1.21% |
| Australia | 779,707 | 666,756 | +16.94% |
| Oceania | 929,018 | 760,625 | +22.14% |
| New Zealand | 133,727 | 106,155 | +25.97% |
| Hawaii | 68,850 | 44,373 | +55.16% |
| Greenland | 16,583 | 9,830 | +68.70% |
| Chatham Islands | 838 | 806 | +4.01% |
| Easter Island | 18 | 0 | Zero target |

Hawaii and Greenland exceeded their nominal targets by about 55% and 69%. Australia, Oceania and New Zealand exceeded theirs by roughly 17–26%. North America finished about 6.5% below its target. The historical scaling formula and the realized population dynamics are separate parts of the model. These deviations remain relevant when interpreting ancestry spread in small or relatively isolated groups.

## Historical movement checks

All 14 recorded components across eleven dates passed count and identity-accounting checks. Each numerical transfer retained eligible people at its origin. The 445 BC and 433 BC entries record journeys or continuity without a quantified population transfer.

| Date | Component | Adults moved | Juvenile survivors moved | People remaining in eligible source group |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 722 BC | Assyrian deportations | 70,915 | 29,605 | 234,547 |
| 605 BC | Royal youths | 25 | 15 | 43,167 |
| 597 BC | Jehoiachin-era deportation | 9,200 | 640 | 346,079 |
| 586 BC | Jerusalem fall | 73,513 | 30,941 | 243,725 |
| 585 BC | Flight to Egypt | 17,126 | 7,268 | 219,548 |
| 582 BC | Later deportation | 447 | 238 | 219,397 |
| 538 BC | Cyrus return assembly | 25,416 | 13,555 | 69,056 |
| 538 BC | Cyrus return servants | 4,402 | 2,348 | 957,763 |
| 458 BC | Ezra registered males | 1,496 | 0 | 21,912 |
| 458 BC | Ezra Levite relatives | 23 | 12 | 31,660 |
| 458 BC | Ezra temple servants | 132 | 70 | 985,606 |
| 445 BC | Nehemiah journey annotation | 0 | 0 | Unquantified |
| 444 BC | Jerusalem resettlement | 19,742 | 8,077 | 250,369 |
| 433 BC | Continuing diaspora annotation | 0 | 0 | Unquantified |

For 597 BC, the source count of 10,000 is represented by 9,200 adults, 640 juvenile survivors and 160 children excluded under the selected survival convention. Of the modeled adults, 8,561 were men, preserving the specified minimum of 8,000. The Cyrus assembly count of 42,360 is represented by 25,416 adults, 13,555 juvenile survivors and 3,389 excluded children. The separately listed servants retain their own accounting.

The movement assumptions include a 30% deportation share for unnumbered general deportations, a 60% adult share for age-ambiguous person counts, and an 80% survival share for their children. The normal mate-choice rules continue after the Exodus. Geographic subgroups and movements are schematic, and family travel correlations remain unresolved. The initial Egyptian new-partner crossing setting is 1%. The observed female completed-lifetime childlessness share was 16.31%.

## Verification and retained files

The review checked all 172 saved snapshots, the 14 movement components, endpoint adult and juvenile counts, and the acceptance conditions. Input and executable fingerprints matched the reviewed build. The native engine also completed its final live-person census, pool consistency and event conservation checks.

- [Machine-readable review](result-review.json)
- [Full saved output](middle-25001.json)
- [Trial settings](trial_settings.json)
- [Build record](build-record.json)
- [Source and event evidence](exile-evidence.json)

The full saved output contains 172 snapshots for the interactive map. The saved-output download is about 1.81 MB.